Pakistan Oil Production Jumps 20%, Yet Drilling Activity Collapses 65%

KARACHI: Pakistan's exploration and production sector posted a split scorecard last month: a fresh gas discovery and rising output on one side, a sharp pullback in drilling activity on the other.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited struck gas at its Dolphin X-1 well, the sector's only discovery during the month. No dry well was reported during the month, an unusually clean exploration scorecard alongside the Dolphin X-1 discovery.

Dolphin X-1 Opens New Exploration Play

The discovery carries significance beyond its initial flow. According to PPL, Dolphin X-1 is the first hydrocarbon find from the Jurassic Chiltan Formation in the Lower Indus Basin, a previously unproven play that could redirect future drilling in the region. Post-acid testing put the gas flow at roughly 0.942 MMscfd.

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According to Focus Pakistan, production numbers tell an encouraging story, though not for a reason anyone would celebrate. Oil output climbed 20 percent year-on-year; gas rose 4 percent. Behind both gains sits the same cause RLNG supply disruptions forced buyers and power plants to fall back on domestic hydrocarbons when imported gas couldn't cover demand. Month-on-month, oil production gained 5 percent and gas inched up 1 percent.

Pakistan Oil Production Jumps 20%

Drilling tells a very different story. Exploratory well drilling fell 65 percent month-on-month, and development well drilling dropped 53 percent over the same period. Those aren't marginal declines. They signal a dramatic slowdown in fresh drilling activity even as producing fields work harder amid the RLNG disruption.

Seismic data adds another layer. 2D seismic acquisition came in at 6.75 kilometers for the month, a thin figure that suggests most 2D survey work has wound down. 3D seismic acquisition moved the opposite direction, surging 28 percent month-on-month. The rise in 3D seismic activity offers one counterweight to the drilling slump. Operators increased detailed subsurface mapping even as actual well drilling slowed sharply, suggesting exploration work has not disappeared altogether.

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Whether the drilling slowdown stems from financing constraints, regulatory delays, or operators waiting for clearer signals on gas pricing isn't spelled out in the monthly figures, but the decline is steep enough to raise the question.

The Dolphin X-1 find gives PPL a rare bright spot in a month otherwise defined by a drilling retreat, and the Chiltan Formation angle gives it added weight: a new play in the Lower Indus Basin could shape where companies point their rigs next, once drilling activity actually picks back up.

For a country leaning harder on domestic oil and gas because of RLNG supply troubles, the disconnect between rising production and falling exploration activity matters. Today's output gains are running on wells already drilled. Without a rebound in exploratory and development drilling, the pipeline of new production replacing today's wells looks thinner than the current numbers suggest.