ISLAMABAD: According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan’s SPI inflation witnessed a fall of 0.98 percent in the week ending on July 2, 2026. This marks a sigh of relief for consumers who have been suffering under the increasing trend for many weeks now.
The SPI index dropped to 354.24, compared to the 357.76 recorded the previous week. The decline is largely attributed to a steep decline in fuel prices along with a reduction in certain food items.
Why Was There a Weekly Decrease
Fuel costs were the biggest factor in week-on-week changes in the SPI inflation figures of Pakistan, making the largest contribution to the decline:
| Item | WoW Decline |
|---|---|
| Petrol | 19.77% |
| Diesel | 17.73% |
| LPG | 12.60% |
| Chicken | 1.97% |
| Bananas | 1.44% |
| Pulse Moong | 1.29% |
| Pulse Mash | 0.84% |
| Garlic | 0.63% |
| Pulse Gram | 0.23% |
| Mustard Oil & Sugar | 0.21% each |
However, the magnitude of the fuel price cuts, which amount to almost 20 percent for petrol in just one week, is an indicator of the government’s recently announced cut in the fuel prices. The reduction will cut down on the cost of transportation and energy production in the country.
Tomatoes Jump by 125% – Week’s Biggest Increase
Whereas fuel was responsible for bringing down Pakistan SPI weekly inflation, tomatoes made the most significant contribution to pushing up prices this week, increasing by 125.40% compared to last week’s prices, an increase that is not uncommon during seasonal shortages of tomatoes in Pakistan.
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Items recording price increases (WoW):
| Item | WoW Increase |
|---|---|
| Tomatoes | 125.40% |
| Onions | 10.72% |
| Potatoes | 10.06% |
| Eggs | 8.32% |
| Wheat Flour | 5.08% |
| Match Box | 0.96% |
| Shirting | 0.87% |
| Washing Soap | 0.63% |
| Fresh Milk | 0.49% |
| Bread | 0.47% |
| Rice IRRI-6/9 | 0.45% |
| Cigarettes | 0.23% |
Of the total number of 51 items contained in the weekly SPI inflation basket in Pakistan, 23 items, representing 45.10 percent of all the items increased in price while 11 items or 21.57 percent decreased.
Yearly Trends Look Less Rosy
While the weekly trends are encouraging, it is the yearly Pakistan SPI weekly inflation rate which paints a more difficult picture, with an increase of 13.52 percent, as a result of consistent increases in various basic categories of goods:
- Tomatoes: +238.72% YoY
- Onions: +80.96% YoY
- Wheat Flour: +68.47% YoY
- Electricity (Q1): +49.14% YoY
- LPG: +44.08% YoY
- Gas charges (Q1): +29.85% YoY
- Mutton: +16.06% YoY
- Beef: +12.89% YoY
The negatives on the other hand are that there have been significant drops on a year-on-year basis in potatoes, which have fallen by 36.60 percent, sugar, falling by 19.42 percent, pulse gram, dropping by 22.11 percent, and eggs, which have fallen by 9.30 percent.
The fuel price drops that drove the overall index lower disproportionately benefit households with vehicles and higher energy consumption groups concentrated in middle and upper income brackets. The food price spikes in tomatoes, onions, and eggs hit lower-income households hardest, as these items represent a larger share of their total expenditure basket.
Struggling Low-Income Families
The following data on the Pakistan SPI shows a worrying trend when it comes to distribution by income levels:
The seemingly small weekly decrease of 0.98 percent hides the wide disparity in its distribution. The two lowest income classes in Pakistan, which include incomes below Rs22,888 per month, saw an increase in their SPI in the week under consideration.
Nayab Fatima is a media professional specializing in fact-based journalism, research, and analytical reporting on technology, telecom, aviation, and automobiles.
