The UAE expels Pakistanis in what is fast becoming one of the most damaging bilateral crises in recent memory.
DUBAI: The UAE has demanded repayment of a $3.5 billion loan while simultaneously pushing thousands of Pakistani Shia workers out of the country and the widening rift between the two longtime allies is starting to look less like a diplomatic spat and more like a calculated squeeze.
The New York Times first exposed the deportation campaign, revealing that UAE authorities began expelling Pakistani Shia workers at least as far back as mid-April.
These figures are astounding indeed. A cleric based in Islamabad who heads a politically active Shia organization reported registration of 5,000 displaced households. Meanwhile, community leaders from a number of Shia villages in northwest Pakistan reported that approximately 900 men have recently arrived back from the UAE unemployed and puzzled about what happened to them there.
$8 Billion in Remittances — Now Under Serious Threat
Nobody in Islamabad saw this coming at this scale. Pakistan has one of the largest expatriate populations working in the United Arab Emirates. This group comprises almost 2 million workers whose hard-earned money contributes $8 billion to the national GDP each year. But the importance of these remittances does not end here. Instead, they help prop up an entire nation that is already suffering from the pressure of debts, high inflation, and reliance on an IMF bailout package.
The Worst Possible Moment for Islamabad
The worst possible timing. Pakistan’s government is currently negotiating with foreign creditors and has almost no financial cushion to absorb shocks of this scale. It will certainly unsettle the policy planners enough, given the recent announcement by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw its loan worth $3.5 billion, which Pakistan requires just to maintain liquidity. The request to repatriate Shias on religious grounds adds insult to injury. Is religion now a part of transactional bilateral relationships?
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Pakistan’s government has exercised considerable restraint in the face of an issue of huge economic significance for the country and its diplomatic relations. But the reason to remain quiet is becoming increasingly difficult with each new figure and with the stories of affected families reaching public knowledge.
For the laborers themselves, the repercussions of such deportation are felt almost instantly. Many had borrowed money for the trip, developed valuable skills over years and relied upon remittances for the livelihood of their families. Returning without warning upends not just their own futures but the financial stability of entire households back home.
What makes this moment particularly consequential is the pattern it suggests. The UAE has long been Pakistan’s economic safety valve a place where Pakistani labor found consistent demand and reliable income. If that valve is now closing along sectarian lines, Pakistan faces a structural economic problem that no short-term policy fix can easily patch.
Two wounds, one punch and Pakistan is still trying to figure out how hard it has actually been hit.
