WASHINGTON: The Iran nuclear program has moved to a much more complicated and potentially perilous level, making containment all the more difficult, a new warning from Eric Brewer, quoted by Foreign Policy, suggests. What the new analysis shows is that Iran has been able to accelerate its program without being derailed due to the rise in military tension.
Iran Nuclear Program Gains Momentum Amidst Military Challenges
As Brewer reports, Iran currently has an ample amount of enriched uranium needed to bring it one step closer towards building a bomb, theoretically. Even more worrisome, however, is the fact that Iran already has reached such a degree of technical proficiency that a political decision could swiftly trigger the development of a nuclear weapon.
This is known as reaching the “breakout” threshold, the point when the production of fissile material for making a nuclear weapon takes place in a matter of days. As reported by Brewer, the amount of time in question has drastically reduced recently.
War and Escalation Reduce Transparency
Instead of disbanding Iran’s nuclear program, it seems that past conflicts may have made it even more secretive. The international inspection systems that used to give insight into Iran nuclear operations have since deteriorated. This makes it difficult for the rest of the world to gauge Iran nuclear capabilities.
Once upon a time, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action provided an opportunity for inspectors to determine the rate of enrichment and facilities. However, due to the degradation of such arrangements, this adds to the uncertainty.
The Security Dilemma Could Lead to Further Nuclear Development
Instead of disbanding Iran’s nuclear program, it seems that past conflicts may have made it even more secretive. The international inspection systems that used to give insight into Iran’s nuclear operations have since deteriorated. This makes it difficult for the rest of the world to gauge Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Once upon a time, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action provided an opportunity for inspectors to determine the rate of enrichment and facilities. However, due to the degradation of such arrangements, this adds to the uncertainty.
Sanctions and Diplomacy Losing Effectiveness
The conventional instruments, including sanctions and diplomacy, seem ineffective now. Iran is positioning itself for economic pressures and developing its nuclear program despite limitations from the international community.
In addition, the diplomatic approach remains unreliable, and force may lead to more problems within the region. Brewer defines the existing circumstances as a policy problem, because all available alternatives are risky.
A Growing Global Security Challenge
The dynamic Iran nuclear program has become a tightrope walk for the international community. The use of military force might lead to an escalation of tensions throughout the region, while poor diplomatic approaches might not be able to curb the country’s nuclear aspirations.
What Brewer has pointed out highlights a larger issue at stake here – the opportunity to handle Iran’s nuclear aspirations might soon start vanishing.
