KARACHI: Pakistani motorists and the transport sector look set for their biggest fuel relief in months, with petrol prices projected to fall Rs22 per litre to around Rs351 and High-Speed Diesel expected to tumble Rs39 per litre to approximately Rs339 in the upcoming fortnightly review.
The cuts, if confirmed, would rank among the steepest single-cycle reductions in recent memory driven entirely by a collapse in global crude benchmarks as Iran-US ceasefire talks push oil markets sharply lower.
Federal Minister for Energy Ali Pervaiz Malik confirmed the direction of travel on X, saying international oil prices are falling as Tehran and Washington edge toward a diplomatic settlement. He added that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed the government to pass every rupee of that global relief directly to consumers without delay.
Petrol Price Cut Pakistan
The numbers backing the projected cuts are stark. The Free on Board price for petrol crashed $10.92 per barrel, sliding from $126.22 to $115.30, dragging the domestic refinery-stage product cost down Rs19.20 per litre to Rs201.95. Custom duties on petrol also ease Rs2.73 per litre. The net derived ex-refinery variance for petrol works out to a downward Rs22.47 per litre from Rs245.16 to Rs222.69.
Read More: Fuel Relief Continues as Govt Clears Two More Subsidy Installments
Diesel Cut Deepens
Diesel tells an even sharper story. The international FOB price for HSD collapsed $20.49 per barrel, crashing from $155.96 to $135.47. That global shock translates into a Rs35.97 per litre reduction in basic local product cost, with customs duties easing a further Rs4.09 per litre. The total derived ex-refinery variance for HSD reaches Rs39.58 per litre downward from Rs304.11 to Rs264.53. The rupee held steady, with the average USD conversion rate ticking marginally from Rs278.54 to Rs278.46, adding no meaningful distortion to the calculations.
JI Demands Rs225 Petrol
Into this environment of anticipated relief, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Hafiz Naeem-ur-Rehman stepped up pressure on the government Thursday, demanding the administration fix petrol at Rs225 per litre. He warned of nationwide protests if the government failed to meet the demand, arguing that falling global oil prices gave Islamabad no justification to keep fuel costs elevated for ordinary Pakistanis already squeezed by two years of inflation.
The JI position sets up a political flashpoint even as the government moves toward cuts that, by any recent standard, qualify as substantial.
Minister Malik also disclosed that a high-level committee now works on a transparent weekly pricing formula developed with stakeholder input, designed to let consumers track exactly how global price movements translate into domestic pump rates. He said the government simultaneously reviews Pakistan’s broader energy security framework, with strategic plans for rollout over coming months.
For now, the immediate arithmetic points one way: the sharpest fuel price relief Pakistani consumers have seen in a single cycle this year arrives at the pump within days assuming OGRA‘s final notification holds the projected figures.
Faraz Ali Ansari is the Founder & Editor of Focus Pakistan and Founder & CEO of Focus Public Relations. With more than 22 years of experience in journalism, media relations and strategic communications, he covers business, economy, aviation, technology, public policy and corporate affairs. He has worked with leading national and international organizations across multiple sectors.
