WASHINGTON: The American military has bombed Iranian military targets on Qeshm Island earlier this week in retaliation for a series of attacks on countries in the Gulf region by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. The strikes were acknowledged by the US Central Command, stating that the attack was part of the “self-defense strikes” conducted on facilities located in one of the most strategic locations of the Persian Gulf – Qeshm Island that is situated right next to the vital Strait of Hormuz.
These strikes represent a major new phase in the Iran-US dispute and bring the two nations’ militaries into a confrontation in the strait that oil markets have long been dreading.
“Every exchange near Qeshm is a message about the Strait of Hormuz. Washington and Tehran both know what closing it would cost and both are betting the other will blink first.”
Why Qeshm Island Matters
Location matters greatly.
Qeshm Island is no random choice. This island happens to be Iran’s biggest one, and it happens to be right at the mouth of the strategic Strait of Hormuz which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. By stationing military forces on Qeshm Island, Iran is able to observe and possibly even blockade the shipping that takes place in the strait. By attacking the facilities in Qeshm Island belonging to Iran, the US will be undermining Iran’s ability to cut off the single most strategic oil route in the world.
The proximity of the strait is a critical factor for the energy market. On average, some 17 to 21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait on a daily basis. Any disturbance in the flow of oil, whether caused by mining or drone attacks, can drive the cost of crude into areas unseen for many years.
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The Sequence of Escalation
How Wednesday’s exchange unfolded
Phase 1 Iranian launch
Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain. Two headed for Kuwait fall short or break apart mid-flight. Three targeting Bahrain are intercepted by US and Bahraini air defense systems.
Phase 2 Drone attacks
Iranian drones target maritime traffic in regional waters. US forces shoot them down before any vessel is struck.
Phase 3 US response
CENTCOM strikes an Iranian military command facility on Qeshm Island. Earlier strikes had already targeted Iranian radar installations, air defense systems, and drone command-and-control sites on the island.
Phase 4 IRGC counterclaim
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims it struck US military assets in the Gulf, including facilities in Bahrain. CENTCOM rejects all claims, saying every Iranian attack was intercepted or failed.
Trigger MQ-1 drone
Earlier in the cycle, CENTCOM reported Iran downed a US MQ-1 drone flying over international waters — an act Washington cited as justification for the initial round of strikes on Qeshm Island.
Position of Iran and the IRGC Perspective
Tehran claims strikes, but US denies it
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran did not waste time in declaring Wednesday’s incident to be a victory for them, stating that their missiles and drones had targeted the US forces present in the Gulf region, including those in Bahrain.
This alternate story line is part and parcel of the conflict itself. Each side has an audience within its own nation that needs managing. The IRGC cannot afford to take continuous blows without claiming retribution. Washington can’t allow Iran to get away with telling success stories after claiming to make strikes on targets. What results is an ongoing information war going along with the traditional military one.
Diplomacy’s Dead End
One of the most striking aspects of the current escalation is its timing. The United States launches attacks on Iranian military facilities at Qeshm Island while there are ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. The diplomatic lines are certainly not cut, but diplomacy does seem unable to keep the military situation from getting worse.
The strait is currently open and business is proceeding as usual for the time being. However, the distance between the current military engagement and an actual energy market crisis is decreasing with every attack that happens. The most recent attack by the US on the Iranian operation at Qeshm Island is just the newest act in this never-ending conflict.
